It happened to the Bears two years ago, and now it has happened to Green Bay. In the last two years, these rivals -- who play each other Monday night -- thought they had something. Now they don't.

One field goal from reaching the Super Bowl last season, and now the Packers are losers again. What happened? Well, injuries on defense. That's the accepted excuse -- I mean, reason. Also bad luck. And, well, they talk all around the obvious:

The Packers blew it big-time by letting Brett Favre go. Packers Week is missing something without him. There was always a buzz, a thrill of trying to figure out how the Bears would try to stop Favre.

Now the face of the Packers is gone, and he took their heart and soul, too.

After last season, some people thought Favre was nearly finished. Now the Packers are finished, officially eliminated from playoff contention Sunday. They haven't won since blowing out the Bears on Nov. 16. And Favre is in New York, leading last year's crummy Jets into first place.

That's my theory, anyway. But the numbers don't prove it.

When Favre changed his mind about retiring and tried to return to the Packers, they wanted to move on with the future and quarterback Aaron Rodgers. Meanwhile, the Jets were happy for Favre to replace Chad Pennington.

Rodgers 'rates' edge on paper

Guess what: Pennington, now in Miami, has the fourth-highest passer rating (95.1) in the NFL. Rodgers is ninth (91.8). And Favre? He's 14th (86.5), about the same as Pennington's rating with the Jets last year. Favre also leads the league in interceptions.

So in New York, they're still waiting for proof about Favre, who has had three straight bad games. And in Green Bay, they're in denial.

The thing is, Favre is a winner and a leader. That trumps numbers.

Any time I say something like that, the stat-heads start calling to disagree as they live in a world of numbers. But Favre is something they don't have numbers for.

It's a presence, a will. I don't know what it is, really.

He leads. Others follow. And with pressure on, everyone on the team knows who's responsible.

It's impossible to quantify. Yet he's in a slump now, and these past few games have had New Yorkers wondering. It's possible the Jets could lose the last game to Miami, and Pennington's Dolphins could eliminate Favre and the Jets.

In Green Bay, they only wish they could have such worries again, about whether Favre will save the day as usual or pull some really dumb move. He did blow it in the NFC Championship Game.

But you don't throw away a star quarterback, even one who's about to turn 39, when your team is so close to the Super Bowl.

The window just slammed on the Packers.

They don't admit it, but they know.

''Our good players need to have the confidence, and maybe it takes somebody saying something, maybe it takes a coach,'' Rodgers told the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel the other day. ''I'm not really sure what it is. It's a different dynamic than any other team I've been on. It's been interesting to watch and also be a part of it.

''But guys have to realize they have an opportunity to lead. I don't know what they want from me all the time. I'm trying to be the best leader I can.''

Favre hasn't lost his touch

The paper pointed out that the Packers have had chances to win six games in the final minutes this season but lost each one. Rodgers said the team is in ''transition.''

Listen to the contrast with the talk around the Jets, where Ian O'Connor of the Bergen (N.J.) Record wrote this recently:

''Sometimes by playing his own brand of Arena Football, and sometimes by playfully blowing an air horn in the locker room as he did Wednesday, Favre has humanized a franchise that often has operated in police-state form. The Jets weren't just game-day losers all these years; they were cold, distant and forbidding from Monday to Saturday. It took a Hall of Famer to loosen them up.''

When Favre went to the Jets, it was hard to figure out what he saw. Why join a bunch of losers and risk his name? Too many great players never know when to quit.

But Favre was too good last year to think he was done. And now he's invalidating the stats as always, though he has passed for the second-most yards in the league. He takes chances, makes huge mistakes and somehow it all balls up into a winner.

It's true that the Jets have improved their offensive line and recharged former Bears running back Thomas Jones. And the Packers do have all those injuries.

So if you want to argue against Favre, you have plenty of evidence. More than I do. But he's the critical piece, the most glaring change in two teams whose fortunes have made glaring turns.

The Jets have gone from 4-12 to first place, even though this year's QB has the same rating as last year's. And the Packers are done.

It doesn't break anyone's heart in Chicago to see the Packers falling apart. But you wonder if Packers Week ever will be the same.

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