Two straight losses have erased the magic of an unexpected 5-3 first half, but division-wide mediocrity leaves the Bears with a clear path to the playoffs. All they have to do is win. Not every game, mind you -- none of the remaining division combatants seems capable of that. But finishing with a winning record probably will be enough to make the playoffs.

It's possible the Bears might win the NFC North with an 8-8 record, but they likely would have to win the right games to pull off that feat. Can the Bears finish 4-2 and make the playoffs? Anything more would be the best finish in Smith's tenure.

The Bears haven't exactly closed strong under Smith. In fact, they are a combined 12-12 in the final six games over the last four seasons, going 1-5, 4-2, 4-2, and 3-3. Not a bad record when you consider how poorly they did in the coach's first year, but not really a confidence builder either when you consider they lost only five games in 2005 and two came in the final six, and they lost only three games in 2006 and two also came in the final half dozen.

The less-than-stellar finishes have led to conversations about just how effective the Bears' defensive scheme has been in inclement weather. The so-called Tampa-2 defense originated in Florida, where cold weather doesn't come into play.

Playing in extreme temperature takes a toll on a team, be it playing in extreme heat or extreme cold. The Bears give up size for speed on defense and that has led to speculation they're more inclined to wear down late in the year.

Regardless, the team has a slight advantage over Green Bay and Minnesota in terms of their final schedule. The Bears' remaining opponents have a combined 24-36 record and there isn't a single winning team left on the slate. Green Bay, Minnesota and New Orleans are all at .500. The Bears play those three teams in prime time. They are at Minnesota on Nov. 30 on NBC's night game, play New Orleans on Thursday, Dec. 11 on the NFL Network and host Green Bay on Monday Night Football on Dec. 22.

Ideally, teams like to play at the same time every Sunday to have their body clocks in sync. But at least the Bears are home for two of the three prime-time games, and they host Jacksonville on the Sunday before the Thursday game with New Orleans. The Saints have an important division game against Atlanta in the Super Dome before coming to Chicago.

That game also precedes the Monday night meeting with Green Bay, which means the Bears will have 11 days to prepare for that important showdown against the Packers. Of course, that leaves them a short week before the season finale at Houston, while Green Bay goes home to close out against the winless Detroit Lions.

The Packers have a slightly less favorable schedule than the Bears. Their remaining opponents are 25-35 with Carolina (8-2) the only team with a winning record, and they come to Lambeau Field. Of course, the Packers have to travel to New Orleans and Chicago, the only other .500 teams left on their schedule.

Minnesota has the toughest road to the playoffs. Their opponents are 31-29 and include two winning teams, the New York Giants (9-1) and Arizona (7-3), in addition to the .500 Bears.

The Bears and Packers have the same division and conference records (3-1, 4-4), while Minnesota is 2-2 and 4-3. Both Minnesota and Green Bay play Detroit, while the Bears' opponent with the worst record is St. Louis (2-8).

The team that might have the biggest say in the NFC North race is Jacksonville, which plays all three contenders. The Jaguars (4-6) were a preseason favorite that has fallen on hard times, with only an outside chance at the playoffs. The Jaguars have six losses in the AFC, which all but eliminates their playoff chances unless they win out. Green Bay and Minnesota travel to Jacksonville, while the Bears play them at home.

It's a six-game season, and in this Pick-6, the odds definitely favor the Bears.

Comment at suntimes.com.

mmulligan@suntimes.com

Mike Mulligan and Sun-Times colleague Brian Hanley host a sports-talk show from 6 to 10 a.m. Monday through Friday on WSCR-AM (670).

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HOME STRETCH

The Bears (5-5) are in a three-way tie for first in the NFC North with Green Bay and Minnesota. Each

team has a common nonconference opponent: Jacksonville.

Bears schedule

Sunday at St. Louis (2-8)

Nov. 30 at Minnesota (5-5)

Dec. 7 Jacksonville (4-6)

Dec. 11 New Orleans (5-5)

Dec. 22 Green Bay (5-5)

Dec. 28 at Houston (3-7)

Vikings schedule

Sunday at Jacksonville (4-6)

Nov. 30 Bears (5-5)

Dec. 7 at Detroit (0-10)

Dec. 14 at Arizona (7-3)

Dec. 21 Atlanta (6-4)

Dec. 28 N.Y. Giants (9-1)

Packers schedule

Monday at New Orleans (5-5)

Nov. 30 Carolina (8-2)

Dec. 7 Houston (3-7)

Dec. 14 at Jacksonville (4-6)

Dec. 22 at Bears (5-5)

Dec. 28 Detroit (0-10)